History repeats itself.
The means and ends that we propose and that we use are repeated. We do what others do.
Of course, there are new paths, or there are audacities that are scary to imitate. But, the means and ends are repeated.
The Belarusian government has captured 33 Russian mercenaries.
Look under what circumstances:
33 Russian mercenaries were captured in Belarus. The government of that country accuses them of seeking to intervene in the next elections.
32 of them have been identified as employees of the Wagner Group, a renowned mercenary company, whose owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is a recognized friend of Vladimir Putin.
The President of Belarus turns 26 years in power. So far it has been one of Vladimir Putin’s main allies. Both have the same positive discourse on the former USSR and are in favor of consecutive reelection.
But relations between the two countries have deteriorated since Putin proposed a “union of states”, which under the terms proposed by Moscow would be a merger between the two nations.
Russian media for their part have pointed out that the mercenaries may only be passing through, but that their ultimate goal is Syria.
Belarus President Aleksander Lukashenko faces tough elections. Two opposition candidates have been arrested on charges of corruption. A third, left the country to avoid arrest. Popular demonstrations have increased.
Lukashenko may be looking to get away from Moscow and closer to the US. In February of this year, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited the country. And for the first time since 1990, the US has appointed an ambassador to Belarus.
The pattern is recognized. We don’t know what the actors’ path is, we don’t know what their agenda is. But, we are not in the dark.
As we learn more and more Stories, we can meet your patterns, and we can shed more and more light on what our competition does, and on what we do ourselves.
This idea that I am talking about here is not mine nor is it new. It is like Maquiaveli teaches to read History. I call it “Tactical Reading of History”.
I will publish a book and before that a free ebook on the subject. Leave me a comment if you are interested in the subject. Let’s talk!